It's not who votes that counts...

“It’s not who votes that counts; it’s who counts the votes!” - Joseph Stalin, General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union

Sadly, the outcome of an election does indeed have an impact on the market. Let’s be clear, though — “election” refers to an American election, and “market” refers to the U.S. domestic market. And it goes far beyond “Candidate X will be far better for the market than Candidate Y.” This is short-term thinking that is, particularly for the options trading strategy which I tout, irrelevant. The long-term effect of an election is what’s more relevant. American elections have tremendous impacts on American society, as well as the rest of the world, but not exclusively because of the role of the Executive Branch in “executing the law.” The bully pulpit is the main culprit. This pulpit sets the tone of the dialogue; then the media class, the political class, the academic class, and the remaining participants of the Deep State determine if the Executive is aligned with their global vision, or if instead the Executive is refusing to be the puppet of the Deep State.

We are in the middle of another ‘contested’ election. Trump wanted the counting to stop the night of the election, while Biden wanted it to continue — after all, there are many votes that were mailed in because of the irrational fear over a virus that has taken over the country (and the world) in 2020. But what’s new? This is what politicians do; they push forward a narrative and an agenda that works in their favor. It’s really quite practical. At the same time, there are questions as to how the pollsters could have gotten this so wrong (“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” - Mark Twain) and how the votes are now being counted, hence the Stalin reference above. We may not like it, but America in 2020 looks and functions in a dramatically different fashion as a political entity than at the formation of the country in 1776. The banana republics and proponents of Marxism and state power have infiltrated, and we are no longer recognizable as the free society we once were. We won’t know for some time who the winner of the 2020 presidential election is, but we can be certain that Trump will fight this one out until the end… if not beyond!

The first election I recall paying any attention to was Bush vs. Gore in 2000, when I was just a wee lad. I remember even then that the substance of the national discourse was lacking — at the time, I figured I must have been missing something. After all, adults and figures of authority know best! In retrospect, though, nine-year old me nailed it. Those candidates offered very much the same solutions to “our problems.” In the end, it’s merely a personality contest. Every four years, we have the opportunity to go to the polls and we get to choose between Tweedledee and Tweedledum. Sure, sometimes we get a more interesting offering than normal, but we mustn’t sell ourselves short — we deserve far better than the choice between two candidates who both propose differing ways in stripping us of our liberties. The long-term effects that each candidate brings, however, are of relevance and therefore are worthy of discussion. One candidate — Trump — is (1) a cheerleader of American business and the U.S. economy, (2) a friend of the taxpayer, and (3) a surprising but welcomed defender of free speech. Another candidate — Biden — is (1) a proponent of fairness and wealth equality, (2) a fierce ally of Fauci and the maskers, and (3) an arduous apologist for the Deep State and the status quo. I didn’t mean to indicate my preference in this piece, but there it is. The candidates don’t even speak the same language — this is why neither “side” (between Democrats and Republicans — there are an infinite number of sides if you actually consider genuine philosophy) understands what the other side is even talking about.

So… where does this leave us? Well, I can give you one guarantee: the market will move either up, down, or sideways. This doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things, as this is what markets have always done and will always do. This also doesn’t matter for my options trading strategy, since we are engaged in short-term options trades that factor in all three of these price movements. In effect, then, this charade of democracy should instead crystallize the idea that we own ourselves and our bodies, and therefore our futures are dependent on our own selves, not on some external party. We must minimize the effects of others’ actions on our lives. If we can do that, we should be in good shape.

Regards,
John