Don't Be Emotional
“You can't be scared. You do your thing, you hold your ground, you stand up tall, and whatever happens, happens.” - Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal
Emotions are a human trait, but that doesn’t mean we should rely on them for success. In fact, making decisions based on emotion is a recipe for disaster, yet it’s what most people do. Any given day, particularly if you watch Fox News, CNN, or MSNBC, journalists give you many reasons to be outraged. In a similar way, you may hear about the rising price of Tesla or Bitcoin from the financial press, and your instinct is to feel FOMO. And finally, you may see a press release that suggests that a 100% effective vaccine has been created, and you’ve never felt more ecstatic.
Each of these emotions is misplaced and leads you in the wrong direction.
In the first example, you watch the mainstream media — yes, even Fox — and you are told how you should think and feel about the world around you. Even though the March for Trump/Save America rally, which took place this past Wednesday, had been planned for weeks, and even though there were many people who predicted some sort of physical confrontation, the resulting ‘storming of the Capitol’ took most people by surprise. It’s not worth rehashing what has been covered at length all over the place. Instead, here’s what’s important to address: assuming you didn’t like Trump beforehand, was this much of a surprise? Were you unaware that for most of 2020 he stated that he wouldn’t accept that he lost the election? Assuming you did like Trump, do you feel different now? Is a mad crowd that reacted to a typical Trump speech enough to change your mind about someone you’ve defended at every non-PC, ‘unpresidential’ turn? This week, Melania’s chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, and Betsy DeVos have all resigned, waxing poetic about their changes of heart. This is the clearest example of political BS, and it is merely politicians jumping ship in a ridiculous attempt to save their credibility and their reputations. Maybe it’ll work, maybe it won’t. Most importantly, however: who cares? How has your life actually changed this week? Are you worried about how Angela Merkel will treat you when you are sure to meet her on a visit to Germany? Maybe concerned about what Queen Elizabeth’s immigration officers will say to you? This week has been a prime example of what any political system is capable of producing: madness. If you are truly curious about the nature of this week’s political events, I recommend Anatomy of the State by Murray Rothbard.
In the second example, you encounter FOMO, or Fear of Missing Out. This is particularly prominent at a time in which the economy has been trampled upon by legislators all over the country, the national debt continues to increase, yet somehow the stock market continues to hit all-time highs. Those on the sidelines who used to scoff at these speculators jumping into an insanely frothy market are suddenly willing to reconsider their hesitations. And bitcoin? Already up 38% — in the first week of 2021! And Tesla? Up 25% in the same amount of time. Unfortunately, the emotional trader views these jaw-dropping gains as an invitation to jump onboard. Well, as Murphy Lee has rapped, “what goes up, must come down.” And as Bill Bonner writes, “markets revert to the mean eventually.” You can be happy for Elon Musk, now the wealthiest person in the world, and you can even buy a Tesla. You can look forward to a world in which cryptocurrency is used over the fiat currency of government. That doesn’t mean you should speculate and buy in when these assets are both trading at their all time highs! Let it go — there are plenty of opportunities to make money every day — buying at the top isn’t the way to do it.
In the final example, the vaccine. If a successful vaccine is never proven effective, will this forbid you from ever going outside again? On the flip side, if the vaccine is 100% effective, will you be satisfied once you get it? Or will that still not be enough, and will you attempt to have your government mandate the inoculation of every citizen? If it’s not 100% effective, and not everyone chooses to get it — namely because the data shows that the survival rate is rather high, and therefore why bother? — then why is this vaccine and its development getting so much high praise from the media and the politicians everywhere? And if the vaccine isn’t the promised elixir, then why is everyone this overly excited about its development?
Think critically and logically. Don’t be emotional.
Regards,
John